GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS
REACH A RECORD HIGH

According to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history.

Global levels climbed to 30.6 Gigatonnes (Gt), marking a five per cent rise over the previous record high of 29.3 Gt in 2008, despite a dip in 2009 emissions due to the economic recession. This increase raises serious doubts over whether plans of limiting the average global temperature to an increase of two degrees Celsius by 2020 will be achieved (as agreed by a meeting of world leaders last year in Cancun). In order to reach that target, carbon dioxide emissions should not exceed 32 Gt annually. Given the rate of increase between 2008 and 2010, however, the 32 Gt limit will be reached within months.

Chief economist for the IEA Fatih Birol said “the world has edged incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 if the two degree Celsius target is to be attained."

The IEA also said 80 per cent of projected emissions from the power sector in 2020 are already locked in because they will come from power plants that are already built or under construction. Birol added, "Unless bold and decisive decisions are made very soon, it will be extremely challenging to succeed in achieving this global goal agreed in Cancun."

Scientists and campaigners warn that unless governments worldwide are able to reduce carbon outputs rather than allow them to continue to rise, the effects of climate change will intensify.

Examples of such effects include the death of most coral worldwide with a one degree Celsius rise in average temperatures.

With a two degree rise, coastal flooding will affect 10 million more people. At a temperature three degrees warmer, deserts will take over parts of the U.S., Australia, and South Africa.

If the world witnesses a four degree rise in average temperatures, ice covering the Arctic will melt completely and sea levels will rise by five metres.

So how do we mitigate the increase? According to researchers in the UK, reducing the inequalities between rich and poor nations could be the main driver for avoiding the worst effects of climate change and even reducing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.

Writing in the International Journal of Global Warming, Gemma Cranston and Geoffrey Hammond of the University of Bath explain that economic wealth is the most significant driver of carbon emissions rather than population growth during the 21st Century and that it is the cumulative build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide since the 1850s, the period of the industrial revolution in the northern hemisphere, that is largely to blame for the problem of elevated carbon dioxide levels.

They say, "The industrialised nations should take a lead in mitigating the global release of greenhouse gases, because they are principally responsible for their lifetime concentrations."

The researchers also point out that the developing world could benefit from the assistance of industrial countries to promote their economic growth, which would improve resource and energy efficiency.

But this just raises the question, how do we decouple economic growth from carbon emissions? According to UK climate minister Greg Barker, this is the missing ingredient. Fundamentally, he said, the question is "whether a transition to a low-carbon economy is compatible with continued economic growth - and no-one knows the answer, because no country has made the transition yet".

No matter which approach is agreed upon, many scientists say the world may still be able to avert disaster with swift, decisive action by governments. However, one thing remains clear... the window of opportunity for consequential action is closing quickly.

Sources:

Understanding your carbon footprint
GreenAnswers.com
BBC News
CBC News
www.sciencedaily.com