COP17 EXPECTATIONS AND CHALLENGES...

The 17th Conference of the Parties (COP 17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Durban from November 28 to December 9. Time draws near for Africa's first COP and the discourse surrounding the expected outcomes of the event mushroom. Amid the plethora of hopes and aspirations for the event, there remains much scepticism as to what solid outcomes can be expected at this convergence of government, corporate and civil society representatives. This is especially true as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol – the only existing binding international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - expires at the end of 2012.

The conference is set to attract over 20 000 delegates from more than 190 countries. International Relations Minister, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane (whose department is coordinating the event) is the incoming president of COP 17 and has conveyed to the South African National Assembly that they 'in the main, are happy with their state of readiness'.

In terms of the vision for the event, Nkoana-Mashabane indicated there were essentially two ideological camps, which were currently seen to be competing. "One vision wants to limit Durban's focus to the operationalisation of what came out of Cancun [COP 16 held in Mexico last year], and the other wants to additionally focus on finalisation of matters still outstanding from the Bali Road Map [an attempt to implement a binding agreement on greenhouse gas emissions, adopted in Indonesia in 2007]." During her address, Nkoana-Mashabane identified adaptation as a key focus for Africa during the Durban conference.

From the perspective of many governmental representatives, it is crucial for the developed world to shoulder the biggest burden of emissions cuts, as historically they have made the largest contribution to the circumstances leading to climate change. In reference to what is widely held to be at the cornerstone of the immediate future of the climate change agenda, South Africa's Democratic Alliance party's Gareth Morgan noted: "the big question on everyone's mind is whether there will be a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol". This is the main and most difficult challenge facing South African negotiators, although the EU has come forward with an offer to continue it if other countries will join. Many countries – including Japan, Canada and Russia, seem to have little interest in a second commitment period unless developing countries make similar commitments.

The consequences of failure shall be particularly pertinent in view of the fact that the conference takes place on African soil – as both climate models and socio-economic circumstances indicate that the continent is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Another challenging hurdle is the financial aspect of pursuing the climate change agenda – cutting emissions and investing in adaptation technology are both costly exercises requiring an extensive outlay of cash. The UN Green Climate Fund – involving a $100 billion pledge made by developed countries in Copenhagen, has been stalled on the question of financial sourcing and the Funds' finalisation on the objections of two countries within the Transitional Committee. The compromises reached at Copenhagen need to be upheld at the Durban conference if the rollout of the fund is to go ahead. However, with the deepening financial crisis extending across Europe, money pledged is unlikely to be forthcoming in the near future. According to Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General of the Centre for Science and Environment, "Developed countries have already started re-labelling development aid and loans as climate finance, but there is no new money coming in."

All these factors set the scene for a potentially explosive, eminently engaging and highly publicized event. The eyes of the world will no doubt be on Durban to see if promises are kept, to note where priorities lie, and to evaluate if and how world and corporate leaders intend to address the planets' burgeoning environmental crisis.

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